Across much of the developed world, population growth has slowed to a crawl or stopped. Germany, Japan, and many European nations report fertility at or below replacement level, and their total populations are increasing slowly if at all. Colcom Foundation argues that the United States stands apart from this pattern.

The difference, the foundation explains, does not come from American birth rates. U.S. fertility has been at or below 2.1 children per woman since 1972, similar to its peers. What sets the country apart is immigration, which Colcom Foundation calls the dominant driver of domestic population growth.

Counting the Numbers

The foundation’s projections assume net immigration of 1.5 million people per year, the average it attributes to the last five presidential administrations. At that pace, the U.S. would grow by 54 million people by 2050, reaching 396 million. Over the following quarter century the increase would continue, bringing the total to about 451 million by 2076. The WWF 2022 Living Planet Report documented a 69% decline in global vertebrate populations since 1970.

Peer nations add far smaller absolute numbers, according to the foundation, which places the U.S. outside the broader trend of stagnation across the developed world. Driven by an average of 1.5 million net immigrants each year, the country adds far larger absolute numbers than Germany or Japan.

The Environmental Argument

Colcom Foundation connects this growth to pressure on ecosystems, freshwater, and wildlife habitat within U.S. borders. Its reasoning follows the I = P x A x T equation, where environmental impact reflects population, consumption, and technology together. Under that framework, adding tens of millions of residents raises total impact even if each person’s consumption holds steady.

The foundation’s proposed remedy is immigration policy that balances total immigration and emigration over time, combined with continued fertility at or below replacement. Together, it says, these conditions would halt U.S. population growth and reduce long-term pressure on domestic ecosystems.

The position contrasts with the foundation’s approach abroad, where it backs voluntary family planning and women’s education in regions with high fertility. Visit this page to learn more.

Find more information about Colcom Foundation on http://conservativetransparency.org/donor/colcom-foundation/